Abstracts and presentations of Alexander J. Stein  (July 2010)

• Stein AJ (forthcoming). "The potential of biofortification of rice, beans, cassava and maize throughout Latin America." Evaluation Report for the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (2010). "Low-level presence of new GM crops: an issue on the rise for countries where they lack approval." AgBioForum 13(2): 173-182.
  This study addresses a new issue in the commercialisation of GM crops, namely the occurrence of traces - or "low-level presence" (LLP) - of nationally unapproved GM material in crop imports. The commercialisation of GM crops is a regulated activity and countries have different authorisation procedures. Hence new GM crops are not approved simultaneously. This "asynchronous approval" (AA), in combination with a "zero tolerance" policy towards LLP, is of growing concern for its potential economic impact on international trade. To forecast the future evolution of this issue, we compiled a global pipeline of GM crops that may be commercialised by 2015. This pipeline is analysed by crop and likely LLP scenarios are discussed. While currently there are around 30 commercial GM crops with different transgenic "events" worldwide, it is expected that by 2015 there will be over 120. Given that already with 30 events problems of LLP have occurred, these issues are likely to intensify when more events become available in more countries. (R&D pipeline, GM crops, regulation, authorisation, asynchronous approval, low-level presence, zero tolerance, supply chain, international trade, European Union.)
   
• Stein A.J. (2010). "Farming for fitness: the economics of putting vitamins and minerals into staple crops." Invited presentation at a seminar of the Plant and Crop Sciences Division of the University of Nottingham, May 5, Loughborough, UK.
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (2010). "International trade and the global pipeline of new GM crops." Nature Biotechnology 28(1): 23-25. doi:10.1038/nbt0110-23b. And Supplementary Notes.
  In a previous issue, Paul Christou and colleagues highlighted the patchwork of laws and regulations governing tolerance levels for approved genetically modified (GM) material in non-GM food and in the labeling and traceability of GM products. A related but different problem is that of 'asynchronous approval' of new GM crops across international jurisdictions, which is of growing concern due to its potential impact on global trade. Different countries have different authorization procedures and, even if regulatory dossiers are submitted at the same time, approval is not given simultaneously (in some cases, delays can even amount to years). For instance, by mid-2009 over 40 transgenic events were approved or close to approval elsewhere but not yet approved—or not even submitted—in the European Union (EU; Brussels). Yet, like some other jurisdictions, the EU also operates a 'zero-tolerance' policy to even the smallest traces of nationally unapproved GM crops (so-called low-level presence). The resultant rejection of agricultural imports has already caused high economic losses and threatens to disrupt global agri-food supply chains.
   
• Stein A.J., Qaim M. (2009). "Strategien zur Behebung von Mikronährstoffdefiziten." (Strategies to remedy micronutrient deficiencies.) Report for the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Parliament, Berlin.
  Neben direktem Hunger stellt der Mangel lebenswichtiger Vitamine und Mineralstoffe weltweit das größte Gesundheitsrisiko dar, das zu menschlichem Leiden bei den Betroffenen, wie auch zu erheblichen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Wohlfahrtsverlusten führt. Da sich das Ideal einer ausreichenden und ausgewogenen Ernährung aller selbst mittelfristig kaum erreichen lassen dürfte, werden bisher Maßnahmen wie die Verteilung pharmazeutischer Ergänzungspräparate, die industrielle Anreicherung von Lebensmitteln oder Ernährungsaufklärung mit dem Ziel einer Verhaltensänderung durchgeführt. Ein neuer Ansatz, die "biologische Anreicherung", ergänzt dieses Instrumentarium in sinnvoller Weise und verspricht zudem, eine äußerst kostengünstige Maßnahme darzustellen. Unter biologischer Anreicherung wird vor allem die Züchtung von Pflanzen mit hohem Mikronährstoffgehalt verstanden. Aufbauend auf eine umfassende Literaturübersicht und die Auswertung einer Expertenbefragung werden in diesem Gutachten die noch offenen Forschungsfragen sowie die für eine erfolgreiche Einführung biologisch angereicherter Pflanzen (BAP) aus dem Weg zu räumenden Hindernisse identifiziert. Selbst wenn dies nur einen Teil der BAP betrifft, so wird ebenfalls die Wichtigkeit einer rationalen Auseinandersetzung mit dem Einsatz der Gentechnik auch in der Landwirtschaft hervorgehoben. Das Gutachten schließt mit kurzen, allgemeinen Handlungsempfehlungen.
   
• Stein A.J. (2009). "Global impacts of human mineral malnutrition." Plant and Soil, online November 25. doi:10.1007/s11104-009-0228-2.
  Background: Malnutrition - in the form of insufficient energy intakes - affects millions of people worldwide and the negative impact of this kind of hunger is well acknowledged, not least by agronomists trying to increase yields to ensure a sufficient supply of food. Scope: This review focuses on another, more particular and "hidden" form of malnutrition, namely mineral malnutrition. It illustrates the burden of disease that is caused by mineral deficiencies and the social and economic consequences they bring about. Conclusions: Mineral malnutrition has a considerable negative impact on individual well-being, social welfare and economic productivity. Agricultural scientists should keep the nutritional qualities of food in mind and - next to optimizing the agricultural properties of crops that are paramount for their adoption by farmers - in particular try to increase the micronutrient content in major staple crops as one way to address vitamin and mineral malnutrition in humans; especially plant breeding approaches promise to be very cost-effective. (Humans, micronutrient malnutrition, mineral deficiencies, burden of disease, social and economic costs, biofortification.)
   
• Stein A.J. (2009). "Global impacts of human malnutrition with mineral nutrients." Invited speaker at the international symposium on "Potassium role and benefits in improving nutrient management for food production, quality and reduced environmental damages" of the International Potash Institute and the International Plant Nutrition Institute, November 5-7, Bhubaneshwar, India.
   
• Stein A.J. (2009). "El papel de los nuevos cultivos biotecnológicos en la agricultura y alimentación del futuro." (The role of new biotech cultivars in future agriculture and nutrition.) Invited contribution to a seminar on "Las entidades asociativas agrarias ante las energías renovables" by the Ministerio Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino, September 16-18, Lérida, Spain.
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (2009). "The global pipeline of new GM crops: implications of asynchronous approval for international trade." Technical Report by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, EUR 23486 EN. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 112p. (Related JRC press release.)
  The commercialisation of GM crops is a regulated activity and different countries have different authorisation procedures, i.e. new GM crops do not get simultaneously approved worldwide. This "asynchronous approval" (AA) is of growing concern for its potential impact on international trade, especially if countries operate a "zero tolerance" policy that may result in rejections of imports that contain only traces of such GMOs; a similar problem of "low-level presence" (LLP) of unapproved GM material in imports arises when developers of new GM crops do not seek approval in export markets, i.e. when there is "isolated foreign approval" (IFA) in their home countries only. LLP incidents have already caused trade disruption and economic problems, in particular for the EU feed and livestock sector. To forecast the future evolution of LLP, a global pipeline of new GM crops was established. While currently there are around 30 commercial GM events cultivated worldwide, by 2015 there could be over 120. If problems with LLP have occurred in the past, these are likely to intensify. Moreover, GM events can easily be combined ("stacked") by conventional cross-breeding, thus creating more "new" GMOs (in countries where stacked crops are regulated like new GMOs). Also the issue of IFA is bound to increase with more GM crops being developed by technology providers in Asia for domestic markets. For actors in the global agri-food chain the main problem of LLP is the economic risk of rejections of shipments at the EU border. Part of this problem consists of the "destination risk", i.e. the official testing for unauthorised material only in the port of destination. When compliance with a zero tolerance policy for LLP becomes impossible, exporters may only deal with "preferred buyers" who are known to create little problems. Otherwise, if the risk of rejection increases, so will the price. This will affect EU businesses that are dependent on cheap agricultural imports. (international trade, agricultural biotechnology, GM crops, GMOs, authorisation, low-level presence, LLP, asynchronous approval, isolated foreign approval, impact, economic consequences, EU, agri-food supply chain)
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (2009). "What can data on GMO field release applications in the USA tell us about the commercialisation of new GM crops?" Technical Note by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, JRC 52545. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities:
  Most research and development (R&D) of new genetically modified (GM) crops is based in the USA, where also almost 60 percent of all field trials worldwide with GM crops are carried out and where details on these trials are recorded in a comprehensive public database. While there are some limitations to drawing conclusions on the future commercialisation of GM crops based on this database, some tendencies can be derived from the data. In future more GM crops are likely to have stacked traits, with herbicide tolerance becoming kind of standard trait that is increasingly combined with newer ones. These more novel traits for which field release applications are submitted are aimed at improving the agronomic properties of crops (e.g. conferring tolerance to drought, salt or cold; enhancing yield; increasing nitrogen utilisation; altering maturity; etc.) and to a lesser extent also at improving product quality. Regarding the target crops for genetic engineering, most field release applications are submitted for maize and soybeans with little new activity taking place for other GM crops.
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (2009). "A review of the world's commercial pipeline of GM crops and implications for asynchronous approval and trade." Paper (register for download) for the XIII. ICABR Conference on "The Emerging Bio-Economy", June 18-20, Ravello, Italy. (Here presentation.)
  The commercialisation of GM crops continues to be a contentious issue. To provide consumers with the freedom of choice, "coexistence" between GM and non-GM based agricultural supply chains is implemented in the EU and elsewhere. At the international level the lack of harmonisation among the related national regulatory frameworks - e.g. regarding tolerance levels for GM material in non-GM food - poses problems. This study addresses yet another issue: as the commercialisation of GM crops is a regulated activity and as different countries have different authorisation procedures, new GM crops are not approved simultaneously. This "asynchronous approval" (AA) of GM crops, in combination with the operation of a "zero tolerance" policy towards traces - or "low-level presence" (LLP) - of unapproved GM material, is of growing concern for its potential economic impact on international trade. A similar problem of LLP of unapproved GM material arises when developers of new GM crops only seek domestic approval for their crops but none in potential export markets; we call this "isolated foreign approval" (IFA). To forecast the future evolution of LLP, both due to AA and due to IFA, we compiled the global pipeline of GM crops that may be commercialised by 2015. This pipeline was analysed by crop, and likely future LLP issues were discussed considering the possible authorisation of the crops by different trading partners of the EU. While currently there are around 30 commercial GM "events" worldwide, it is expected that by 2015 there will be over 120. Given that already with 30 events problems of LLP have occurred, these issues are likely to intensify when more events become available in more countries - especially if individual events are combined ("stacked"). Solutions suggested by stakeholders surveyed in our study are to replace zero tolerance policies by feasible marketing thresholds, to carry out official testing of imports already at the port of departure, to streamline the regulatory systems and to mutually recognie the risk assessment of GM crops. (R&D pipeline, GM crops, regulation, authorisation, low-level presence, zero tolerance, asynchronous approval, isolated foreign approval, commercialisation, supply chain, international trade, European Union.)
   
• Stein A.J., Qaim M., Nestel P. (2009). "Zinc deficiency and DALYs in India: impact assessment and economic analyses." In: Preedy V., Watson R.R. (eds). Handbook of disease burdens and quality of life measures. Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag:
  Although less obvious than outright lack of sufficient food, micronutrient malnutrition represents an economic and public health problem in many countries. Over the last years zinc deficiency has emerged as another major micronutrient deficiency, with a large proportion of the population being at risk, especially in the developing world. However, simple quantification of the number of people who suffer from a condition fails to take account of the depth of the problem. For comparison, monitoring or impact assessment purposes as well as cost-effectiveness or more general economic analyses, the health loss of a condition needs to be measured in a more comprehensive index. In this chapter the concept of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) is explained and a framework for its application to zinc deficiency is provided. DALYs were developed by the World Bank in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) and are today used by many relevant organizations and for analyses in very different fields, in particular at the global level or in developing countries. By weighting the loss of an individual's functioning due to ill health - relative to death and complete health - DALYs allow measuring morbidity and mortality in a single index that can be aggregated and compared across different conditions. The methodology is explained and discussed, and general data and parameters to calculate the loss of DALYs due to zinc deficiency are reported for the example of India.
   
• Qaim M., Stein A.J. (2009). "Biologische Anreicherung: Wirksamkeit und Wirtschaftlichkeit." (Biofortification of staple crops: how well does it work and what does it cost?) Ernährungs Umschau 56: 274-280. Manuscript for "Biologische Anreicherung":
  Biofortification of staple crops is a new approach to control micronutrient malnutrition. These crops are bred for higher concentrations of micronutrients in their edible parts. Especially in developing countries, the objective is to reach target populations that live in remote rural areas, where they are hardly covered by other micronutrient programmes. Initial studies indicate that it is possible to achieve acceptance of these crops among target groups. Analyses further show that these crops are economically efficient and can considerably reduce the burden of disease of micronutrient malnutrition, if the general conditions are favourable. In some cases, biofortified crops could also be an interesting alternative in industrialised countries. (biofortification, staple crops, vitamin deficiency, mineral deficiency, golden rice, developing countries)
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (2009). "The global pipeline of new GM crops: introduction to the database." Technical Note by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, EUR 23810 EN. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, database:
  This database is the outcome of a workshop on the "Global commercial pipeline of new GM crops" that was organised by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) on 12-13 November 2008 with international experts and stakeholders involved in the development, regulation and commercialisation of GM crops worldwide. The main objective of the workshop was to compile a global pipeline of new GM crops that are currently in the regulatory pipelines of various countries and that are to be commercialised in the short to medium term by private and public technology providers. This objective was subsequently expanded by the JRC-IPTS, including also data on all GM crops that are already commercialised. The database was compiled for the crops for which GM varieties exist or are likely to be marketed in the near future (mainly soybeans, maize, rapeseed, cotton, sugar beet, potatoes and rice). The database provides the short to medium term pipeline of commercial GM events (until 2015). The database lists the status of individual GM "events". The so-called stacked GM crops are not listed. The regulatory approach to these stacked GM crops differs across the world and their situation is discussed in detail in the forthcoming workshop report.
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (eds) (2008). "Plant molecular farming." Technical Report by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, EUR 23383 EN. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 146p:
  The main objective of this study was to identify prospects, drivers, advantages and challenges of plant molecular farming (PM farming) with a particular focus on the EU. The report considers techno-economic, regulatory and wider policy aspects including stakeholder and public perception. It covers PM farming for producing biopharmaceuticals and vaccines, subsequently referred to as plant-made pharmaceuticals (PMPs) and plant-made vaccines (PMVs), and for plant-made industrials (PMIs) intended to be used for food and feed purposes (food supplements, food and feed additives). The study is based on literature reviews, document analysis and interviews. [...]
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (2008). "Alimentos funcionales en la Unión Europea." (Functional food in the European Union.) Abstract accepted for presentation at the Biotec 2008 Congress on Biotechnology, September 17-19, Granada. Spain.
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (2008). "Functional food in the European Union ." Technical Report by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, EUR 23380 EN. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 74p:
  Functional food (FuFo) is defined as food that is taken as part of the usual diet and has beneficial effects that go beyond nutritional effects. Currently functionality is created during the industrial processing of food through the addition of bioactive ingredients. FuFo is gaining increasing market shares and the health claims made on food have recently been regulated at the EU level. Hence it is pertinent to analyse this market and its likely future development. It is also important to understand consumer attitudes and the cost-effectiveness of this approach. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the market size of FuFo. Estimates of the global market fall into a range of EUR 25-60 billion; a recent lower-bound estimate indicated a size of EUR 6.4 billion for the EU market. Dairy products and beverages have the biggest market share – followed by cereals only as a distant third. In terms of bioactive ingredients, probiotic bacteria cultures clearly dominate, followed by prebiotics. On the demand side a survey in four EU Member States showed that many grocery shoppers were not familiar with the term "functional food", although, when given examples, most of them had already bought FuFo. Better nutrition knowledge was correlated with a more positive attitude towards FuFo, and female, younger and richer respondents were more likely to buy it. The surveyed customers want FuFo to help them stay healthy and well, but taste and the general food quality was also important. Regarding research in the field of FuFo, the output of public and private entities within the EU – measured by scientific publications – is larger than that of the USA or of Japan. One policy-relevant field that has so far received little attention in research is the cost-effectiveness of FuFo as public health intervention. Yet, tentative comparisons with similar approaches suggest that food-based approaches may offer a cost-effective way of addressing health problems.
   
• Papatryfon I., Zika E., Wolf O., Gómez-Barbero M., Stein A.J., Bock A.-K. (2008). "Consequences, opportunities and challenges of modern biotechnology for Europe - the Analysis Report: Contributions of modern biotechnology to European policy objectives." Technical Report by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, EUR 23413 EN. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 235p:
  Biotechnology is generally considered one of the key technologies of the 21st century, with a potentially wide range of applications in e.g. healthcare, agriculture, and industrial production processes. However, this notion has not yet been substantiated, as the diversity of sectors in which biotechnology is applied makes it difficult to investigate its actual degree of diffusion. Against this background and following a request from the European Parliament, the European Commission initiated the Biotechnology for Europe Study (Bio4EU Study). The study's objectives are to assess the contributions of modern biotechnology to the achievement of major European policy goals, and to increase public awareness and understanding of modern biotechnology. This report presents an analysis of the collected data with a view to assessing the contributions of modern biotechnology to major EU policy goals such as economic growth and job creation (Lisbon Agenda), and environmental sustainability and public health (Sustainable Development Strategy). As such, the study can be considered a background document of the Bio4EU synthesis report, which sets out the main findings of the study.
   
• Qaim M., Stein A.J. (2008). "Economic consequences of Golden Rice." Invited presentation at the Fourth Conference of the European Plant Science Organisation, 22-26 June, Toulon, France:
  Golden Rice (GR), which has been genetically modified to produce beta-carotene in the endosperm of grain, has been proposed to control vitamin A deficiency (VAD), especially among the poor in developing countries. However, the usefulness of GR is questioned by some, and the technology has become one of the centerpieces in the public controversy over genetically modified crops. Because GR is still at the stage of research and development, its actual effectiveness remains unknown. We have developed a methodology for ex ante evaluation, taking into account health and nutrition details, as well as socioeconomic and policy factors. The methodology has been used for empirical analyses in India. Building on a disability-adjusted life year (DALY) framework, we show that VAD is a serious public health problem in India, causing a sizeable disease burden, especially in terms if increased child mortality. Using a nationally representative data set of household food consumption, we have simulated the nutrition and health effects of GR under different assumptions. With public support, if GR were to be consumed widely, the disease burden of VAD could be reduced by 60%, while under more pessimistic assumptions the reduction would be around 10%. When valued in dollar terms, these positive health effects also translate into large economic benefits. Regardless of the underlying assumptions, GR is likely to be more cost-effective than alternative vitamin A interventions, such as food supplementation or fortification. Therefore, it should be considered seriously as a complementary intervention to fight VAD in rice-eating populations.
   
• Stein A.J. (2008). "Zink rettet gesunde Lebensjahre. [PDF | 1.7MB]" (Zinc saves healthy life years.) Interview for ZinkNews 7: 5, Initiative Zink, Düsseldorf, Germany.
   
• Stein A.J. (2008). "The EU's first GM crop: its agronomic and economic performance." Poster for internal use. Sevilla: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies.
   
• Stein A.J. (2008). "Asynchronous approval of GMOs by the EU and its trading partners: global R&D pipeline of new GM crops." Internal background document. Sevilla: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies.
   
• Stein A.J. (2008). "Micronutrient malnutrition and biofortification." Invited presentation at the award ceremony for the Prize of the Friends of ZEF, April 21, Bonn, Germany.
   
• Stein A.J. (2008). "The potential role of agricultural technologies in mitigating climate change." Internal document. Sevilla: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, 10p:
  To preliminarily assess the potential role and scope of biotechnology in mitigating climate change through agriculture (in particular with respect to relevant traits that could be used for genetic modification), to consider the role of agriculture in relevant EU policy contexts (e.g. cross compliance or emission trading), and to assess the scope of potential action in this field.
   
• Stein A.J. (2008). "The impact and cost-effectiveness of biofortification" [PDF | 109KB]. Summary paper of a technical consultation on "Micronutrient deficiencies: can agriculture meet the challenge?" FAO Regional Office for the Near East, December 11-13, Cairo, Egypt, 11p.
   
• Stein A.J., Meenakshi J.V., Qaim M., Nestel P., Sachdev H.P.S., Bhutta Z.A. (2008). "Potential impacts of iron biofortification in India." Social Science & Medicine 66(8): 1797-1808. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2008.01.006:
  Iron deficiency is a widespread nutrition and health problem in developing countries, causing impairments in physical activity and cognitive development, as well as maternal mortality. Although food fortification and supplementation programmes have been effective in some countries, their overall success remains limited. Biofortification, that is, breeding food crops for higher micronutrient content, is a relatively new approach, which has been gaining international attention recently. We propose a methodology for ex ante impact assessment of iron biofortification, building on a disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) framework. This methodology is applied in an Indian context. Using a large and representative data set of household food consumption, the likely effects of iron-rich rice and wheat varieties are simulated for different target groups and regions. These varieties are being developed by an international public research consortium, based on conventional breeding techniques; they might be ready for local distribution within the next couple of years. The results indicate sizeable potential health benefits. Depending on the underlying assumptions, the disease burden associated with iron deficiency could be reduced by 19-58%. Due to the relatively low institutional cost to reach the target population, the expected cost-effectiveness of iron biofortification compares favourably with other micronutrient interventions. Nonetheless, biofortification should not be seen as a substitute for other interventions. Each approach has its particular strengths, so they complement one another. (Biofortification, plant breeding, iron deficiency anaemia, health benefits, DALYs, cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit analysis, India.)
   
• Stein A.J., Matuschke I., Qaim M. (2008). "'Grüne Gentechnik' für eine arme Landbevölkerung:
  Erfahrungen aus Indien" ('Green' biotechnology for a poor rural population: experiences from India.) Geographische Rundschau 4: 36-41. Manuscript for "Grüne Gentechnik":
  The majority of the population in developing countries and emerging economies lives in rural areas, where people largely depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. In this context, an often discussed question is whether modern technologies can help ridding these - often traditional - societies from hunger and poverty. In the past, the technology-driven Green Revolution already helped prevent famines in India. Yet, the country still faces the challenge of reducing widespread poverty. This article discusses the potential role of a new agricultural technology - genetically modified (GM) crops, which emerged in what is sometimes called the "gene revolution" - in helping address this challenge. The first example described is the development and cultivation of insect-resistant GM cotton (Bt cotton) in India; it is explained how resource-poor farmers can benefit financially from cultivating this crop through reducing pesticide use and obtaining higher effective yields. The second example shows how the introduction of another GM crop, nutritionally enhanced rice (Golden Rice), can contribute more directly and in a cost-effective way to reducing malnutrition in at-risk populations in the medium term. Thus, this article illustrates how India has crossed the "molecular divide" and has actively embraced biotechnology.
   
• Stein A.J., Sachdev H.P.S., Qaim M. (2008). "Genetic engineering for the poor: Golden Rice and public health in India." World Development 36(1): 144-158. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2007.02.013:
  Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) affects millions of people, causing serious health problems. Golden Rice (GR), which has been genetically engineered to produce beta-carotene, is being proposed as a remedy. While this new technology has aroused controversial debates, its actual impact remains unclear. We develop a methodology for ex ante evaluation, taking into account health and nutrition details, as well as socio-economic and policy factors. The framework is used for empirical analyses in India. Given broad public support, GR could more than halve the disease burden of VAD. Juxtaposing health benefits and overall costs suggests that GR could be very cost-effective. (Vitamin A deficiency, biofortification, Golden Rice, disability-adjusted life years, cost-effectiveness, India.) [More on Golden Rice...]
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (2008). "Mycotoxin contamination in the food and feed chain of Candidate and European Neighbourhood Partner Countries: potential impacts of improved agricultural technologies & practices on public health and EU trade perspectives." Internal research proposal. Sevilla:
  Institute for Prospective Technological Studies.
   
• Stein A.J. (2008). "The impact and cost-effectiveness of biofortification" [PDF | 109KB]. Summary paper of a technical consultation on "Micronutrient deficiencies: can agriculture meet the challenge?" FAO Regional Office for the Near East, December 11-13, Cairo, Egypt, 11p.:
  Micronutrient deficiencies are a recognised public health problem in the Near East. Although this problem is often exacerbated through mineral-poor soils, so far agricultural interventions have attracted less attention as complementary approaches to current interventions like pharmaceutical supplementation or industrial fortification. Yet, especially biofortification – i.e. the use of plant breeding to accumulate essential micronutrients in staple crops – promises to offer a very cost-effective strategy to improve the micronutrient intake of poor population groups, particularly in remote rural areas. While achieving dietary diversity for all is a generally accepted objective, this is often only possible in the long run and the cost-effectiveness of this approach is still unclear. Therefore, where the diets of the poor are already monotonous and cereal-based, biofortified crops can replace these micronutrient-poor staples at a low cost, thus offering a potential remedy in the medium-term. (Agriculture, micronutrient malnutrition, biofortification, impact, cost-effectiveness.)
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (2007). "The potential of new agricultural technologies for reducing the socio-economic impact of mycotoxin contamination of food and feed." Internal research proposal. Sevilla: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies.
   
• Stein A.J. (2007). "The impact and cost-effectiveness of biofortification." Invited presentation at a technical consultation on "Micronutrient deficiencies: can agriculture meet the challenge?", organised by the FAO Regional Office for the Near East, December 11-13, Cairo, Egypt:
  Impact and cost-effectiveness of biofortification [PDF | 148KB].
   
• Qaim M., Stein A.J., Meenakshi J.V. (2007). "Economics of biofortification." Agricultural Economics 37(S1): 119-133:
  Micronutrient malnutrition is a serious public health problem in many developing countries. Different interventions are currently used, but their overall coverage is relatively limited. Biofortification—that is, breeding staple food crops for higher micronutrient contents—is a new agriculture-based approach, but relatively little is known about its ramifications. Here, the main factors influencing success are discussed and a methodology for economic impact assessment is presented. Ex ante studies from India and other countries suggest that biofortified crops can reduce the problem of micronutrient malnutrition in a cost-effective way, when targeted to specific situations. Further research is needed to corroborate these findings and address certain issues still unresolved. (Micronutrient malnutrition, public health, biofortification, agricultural technology, impact analysis, developing countries)
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (eds) (2007). GMCC-07: Third international conference on coexistence between genetically modified (GM) and non-GM based agricultural supply chains. Book of abstracts. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. ISBN 978-92-79-07298-7:
  GMCC-07 is the third edition of a bi-annual international scientific conference on coexistence between genetically modified (GM) and non-GM agricultural supply chains. GMCC-07 will present the latest research findings in agronomic, biological and socio-economic sciences towards supporting feasible coexistence strategies between GM and non-GM agricultural supply chains. GMCC-07 will gather the multidisciplinary scientific community involved in addressing how agricultural supply chains can adapt to novel regulatory and market-driven coexistence requirements world-wide. Further, it will also serve policy-makers through access to the latest scientific information and in the identification of research needs with particular policy relevance.
   
• Stein A.J., Qaim M. (2007). "The human and economic cost of hidden hunger." Food and Nutrition Bulletin 28(4): 125-134:
  Background: Micronutrient malnutrition is a public health problem in many developing countries. Its negative impact on income growth is recognized in principle, but there are widely varying estimates of the related economic cost. Objective: To discuss available studies that quantify the cost of micronutrient malnutrition, and to develop an alternative framework and apply it to India. Methods: Detailed burden of disease calculations are used to estimate the economic cost of micronutrient malnutrition based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. Results: The short-term economic cost of micronutrient malnutrition in India amounts to 0.8% to 2.5% of the gross domestic product. Conclusions: Although the results confirm that micronutrient malnutrition is a huge economic problem, the estimates are lower than those of most previous studies. The differences may be due to differences in underlying assumptions, quality of data, and precision of calculation, but also to dynamic interactions between nutrition, health, and economic productivity, which are difficult to capture. Clear explanation of all calculation details would be desirable for future studies in order to increase credibility and transparency.
   
• Stein A.J., Rodríguez-Cerezo E. (2007). "The potential of new agricultural technologies for reducing the socio-economic impact of mycotoxin contamination of food and feed." Internal document. Sevilla: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies:
  Fungi cause numerous diseases in crop plants with direct yield losses. But some plant fungi also produce toxins (mycotoxins) that directly affect human and animal health. Contamination of food and feed crops with myco­toxins is a serious problem even at very low concentrations – both in terms of the associated human health hazards and in terms of the eco­nomic damage contaminated feed may inflict on livestock keepers. (Food safety, feed, contaminants, fungi, mycotoxins, mycotoxin contamination, yields, livestock, human health, agricultural technologies, socio-economic impact, European Union, EU.)
   
• Stein A.J. (2007). "Potenziale der Grünen Gentechnik für Entwicklungsländer." (The potential of agri biotech for developing countries.) Invited presentation at a dialogue with German Members of Parliament, organised by the German Plant Breeders Association, September 20, Berlin, Germany:
  Grüne Gentechnik für Entwicklungsländer [PDF | 96KB].
   
• Qaim M., Stein A.J., Meenakshi J.V. (2007). "Economics of biofortification." In: Otsuka K., Kalirajan K. (eds). Contributions of agricultural economics to critical policy issues. Malden, MA: Blackwell.
   
• Qaim M., Stein A.J., Meenakshi J.V. (2007). "Economics of biofortification." Agricultural Economics 37(S1): 119-133.
  Background: Micronutrient malnutrition is a public health problem in many developing countries. Its negative impact on income growth is recognized in principle, but there are widely varying estimates of the related economic cost. Objective: To discuss available studies that quantify the cost of micronutrient malnutrition, and to develop an alternative framework and apply it to India. Methods. Detailed burden of disease calculations are used to estimate the economic cost of micronutrient malnutrition based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. Results: The short-term economic cost of micronutrient malnutrition in India amounts to 0.8% to 2.5% of the gross domestic product. Conclusions: Although the results confirm that micronutrient malnutrition is a huge economic problem, the estimates are lower than those of most previous studies. The differences may be due to differences in underlying assumptions, quality of data, and precision of calculation, but also to dynamic interactions between nutrition, health, and economic productivity, which are difficult to capture. Clear explanation of all calculation details would be desirable for future studies in order to increase credibility and transparency. (Burden of disease, DALYs, economic cost, India, micronutrient malnutrition.)
   
• Stein A.J., Sachdev H.P.S., Qaim M. (2007). "What we know and don't know about Golden Rice." Nature Biotechnology 25(6): 624. doi:10.1038/nbt0607-624a:
  Michael Krawinkel raises three issues in his comment to our economic analysis of Golden Rice. First, he questions the scientific basis of the assumptions that we have used in our impact assessment. Second, he claims that the development of Golden Rice costs “a lot of money” and would mainly benefit “agrochemistry” companies. And third, he states that biofortification in general and Golden Rice in particular cannot replace any of the established micronutrient interventions for the forseeable future. Concerning his first point, [...] [More on Golden Rice...]
   
• Zika E., Papatryfon I., Wolf O., Gómez-Barbero M., Stein A.J., Bock A.-K. (2007). "Consequences, opportunities and challenges of modern biotechnology for Europe." Reference Report by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, EUR 22728 EN. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities:
  This report sets out the main findings of the Bio4EU study. It is based on a series of more detailed background documents that are available on the Bio4EU website (http://bio4eu.jrc.es/). The study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of the contributions that modern biotechnology is making in the context of major European Union (EU) policies. The policy context: The study was set in the context of the EU’s Lisbon Strategy and Sustainable Development Strategy. At its March 2000 Lisbon summit the European Council endorsed the objective of making the EU “the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion”. In 2005 the Lisbon Strategy was refocused on economic growth and more and better jobs. In 2001, one year after the Lisbon summit, the Sustainable Development Strategy was adopted by the Gothenburg European Council, complementing the Lisbon Agenda. It was revised in 2005, identifying key challenges such as climate change, clean energy, public health and sustainable consumption and production. Biotechnology in general, and modern biotechnology in particular, is considered one of the key enabling technologies of the 21st century to support the Lisbon Strategy and sustainable development. However, there are few data on the actual availability and uptake of modern biotechnology products and processes. As a result, there is a lack of reliable information on the contribution that modern biotechnology is making to the Union’s objectives. The genesis of the Bio4EU study: Against this background, in response to a request from the European Parliament, the European Commission decided to carry out a study assessing applications of modern biotechnology. The study was designed to provide input for the reflection on the role of life sciences and biotechnology in the renewed Lisbon Strategy and to help increase public awareness and understanding of them. The study was conducted between autumn 2005 and spring 2007 under the leadership of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre. It focused on current applications of modern biotechnology in its three main fields: medicine and health care; primary production and agro-food; and industrial production processes, energy and the environment. Modern biotechnology in medicine and health care: Human medicine and health care is the most prominent field of application of modern biotechnology, as the high share of biotechnology publications and patent applications targeted at this sector confirms. Modern biotechnology has widespread applications in human medicine and health care which make a significant contribution to the EU economy. Modern biotechnology directly contributes to around 0.04% of the EU’s gross value added (GVA) (based on 2002 data). The main product groups are: • biopharmaceuticals, with a share of 9% of turnover from all pharmaceuticals in the EU in 2005. Examples include recombinant insulin or monoclonal antibodies for cancer treatment; • recombinant vaccines, with a share of 17% of turnover from all vaccines in the EU in 2005. Most recombinant vaccines are targeted at hepatitis B; • modern biotechnology-based in vitro diagnostics (IVD), mainly immunoassays and nucleic-acidbased tests, with a share of about 30% of turnover from all IVD in the EU in 2005. Examples include detection of HIV by nucleic-acid-based tests and cardiac diagnostic assays for detecting biomarkers associated with heart attacks. Beyond that, modern biotechnology provides powerful tools for research and development work on biopharmaceuticals, but also on small molecule drugs, vaccines and diagnostics. These and indirect effects stemming from use of modern biotechnology products and the potentially improved state of health of EU citizens would add to the contribution to GVA. The USA takes the largest market shares (in terms of value) for biopharmaceuticals, vaccines and modern biotechnology-based in vitro diagnostics. However, the similar numbers of modern biotechnology products available on the EU and US markets indicate that EU citizens are also able to reap the benefits which modern biotechnology can yield, for example: • unique therapeutic and diagnostic solutions (e.g. enzyme replacement therapy and genetic testing); • unlimited supplies of potentially safer products (e.g. insulin and hepatitis B vaccine); • superior therapeutic and diagnostic approaches (e.g. monoclonal antibodies and cardiac diagnostic assays). Mounting health care costs are a challenge for many European health care systems. Applications of modern biotechnology could contribute to reducing health care costs by virtue of their superior costeffectiveness over alternative products. Often, however, appropriate cost-effectiveness studies are missing or no alternative treatments are available. Apart from a few examples, such as nucleic-acid-based HIV testing which appears to be cost-effective, a conclusive overall assessment is therefore difficult. Modern biotechnology products tend to be relatively high-value products. For example, biopharmaceuticals and recombinant vaccines are dynamic market components displaying higher average growth rates than conventional products. The EU shows less development activity on biopharmaceuticals: only 15% of the biopharmaceuticals currently available were developed by EU companies compared with 54% by US companies. Moreover, US companies have about twice as many drug candidates in clinical trials as EU companies, whereas the share of biopharmaceuticals out of all drugs in clinical trials has been similar in both regions in recent years. [...]
   
• Stein A.J., Nestel P., Meenakshi J.V., Qaim M., Sachdev H.P.S., Bhutta Z.A. (2007). "Plant breeding to control zinc deficiency in India: how cost-effective is biofortification?" Public Health Nutrition 10(5): 492-501. doi:10.1017/S1368980007223857:
  Objective: To estimate the potential impact of zinc biofortification of rice and wheat on public health in India and to evaluate its cost-effectiveness compared with alternative interventions and international standards. Design: The burden of zinc deficiency (ZnD) in India was expressed in disabilityadjusted life years (DALYs) lost. Current zinc intakes were derived from a nationally representative household food consumption survey (30-day recall) and attributed to household members based on adult equivalent weights. Using a dose–response function, projected increased zinc intakes from biofortified rice and wheat were translated into potential health improvements for pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. After estimating the costs of developing and disseminating the new varieties, the costeffectiveness of zinc biofortification was calculated for both scenarios and compared with alternative micronutrient interventions and international reference standards. Setting: India. Subjects: Representative household survey (n = 119 554). Results: The calculated annual burden of ZnD in India is 2.8 million DALYs lost. Zinc biofortification of rice and wheat may reduce this burden by 20–51% and save 0.6– 1.4 million DALYs each year, depending on the scenario. The cost for saving one DALY amounts to $US 0.73–7.31, which is very cost-effective by standards of the World Bank and the World Health Organization, and is lower than that of most other micronutrient interventions. Conclusions: Not only may zinc biofortification save lives and prevent morbidity among millions of people, it may also help accommodate the need to economise and to allocate resources more efficiently. Further research is needed to corroborate these findings. (Micronutrient malnutrition, Biofortification, Plant breeding, Zinc-rich staple crops, Zinc deficiency, Health benefits, Disability-adjusted life years, Cost-effectiveness, India.)
   
• Stein A.J., Qaim M., Meenakshi J.V., Nestel P., Sachdev H.P.S., Bhutta Z.A. (2007). "Biofortification, an agricultural micronutrient intervention: its potential impact and cost-effectiveness." [p. 106 | PDF | 2MB]. Poster presentation [PDF | 21KB] for the Micronutrient Forum on "Consequences and control of micronutrient deficiencies: science, policy, and programs", April 16-18, Istanbul, Turkey:
  Background: Through biofortification the micronutrient levels in staple foods can be increased, making this a potentially good agricultural approach to control micronutrient malnutrition. No biofortified crop is currently widely consumed on a regular basis and a comprehensive evaluation of the potential economic costs and benefits of this new approach is missing. Aims: To project the impact of biofortification on the disease burden due to micronutrient deficiencies and to estimate their cost-effectiveness relative to other public health measures. Methods: Individual intakes of Fe, Zn, and vitamin A (VA) were computed using the 1999/2000 Indian national household food consumption survey (30-day recall, n=119,554) and adult equivalent weights. Micronutrient intake levels were linked to the incidence rates for relevant health outcomes using dose-response or cumulative distribution functions, and the current burden of each deficiency in terms of "disability-adjusted life years" (DALYs) lost was calculated. Simulations were run to determine the impact of consuming iron-rich rice and wheat, zinc-rich rice and wheat, and beta-carotene-rich "Golden Rice" (GR) on the incidence of diseases and the DALYs lost for each deficiency using optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for attained micronutrient content in the biofortified crop. Development and dissemination costs for the biofortified crops were obtained from plant breeders. Cost-effectiveness was calculated as US$/DALY saved. The results were compared with those of other interventions and international benchmarks. The robustness of the model was tested through sensitivity analyses. Results: The annual burden of Fe, Zn, and VA deficiency (VAD) in India is estimated to be 4.0 million, 2.8 million, and 2.3 million DALYs lost, respectively. Fe biofortification of wheat and rice may reduce this burden by 19-58%, saving 0.8-2.3 million DALYs each year. Likewise Zn biofortification of these crops may reduce the burden by 16-55%, saving 0.5-1.6 million DALYs each year. GR may reduce the burden of VAD by 9-59%, saving 0.2-1.4 million DALYs each year. Saving one healthy life year through Fe biofortification of wheat and rice would cost US$ 0.46 and US$ 5.39 under the optimistic and pessimistic assumptions. Corresponding values for Zn biofortification of wheat and rice are US$ 0.68 and US$ 8.80, respectively, and for GR US$ 3.06 and US$ 19.40, respectively. Conclusion: By World Bank and WHO standards biofortification appears to be an economically viable and efficient intervention that may complement the existing mix of strategies to control micronutrient malnutrition:
  Biofortification [PDF | 59KB].
   
• Stein A.J., Sachdev H.P.S., Qaim M. (2006). "Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of Golden Rice." Nature Biotechnology 24(10): 1200-1201. doi:10.1038/nbt1006-1200b. And Supplementary Discussion.
  A News & Views article by Michael Grusak in last year’s April issue (Nat. Biotechnol. 23, 429–430, 2005) highlighted the unresolved debate concerning the efficacy of Golden Rice in addressing the problem of vitamin A deficiency (VAD). He pointed out that an assessment of the potential impact of Golden Rice on this type of malnutrition requires the consideration of multiple variables, including the target individuals’ life stages, the average amount of rice consumed daily by these individuals and the percentage of â-carotene that would be absorbed from rice. He further explains how early critics of the original Golden Rice technology had used simple estimates of these variables to suggest that unrealistic amounts of the transgenic rice would need to be consumed to satisfy the recommended dietary intakes of vitamin A equivalents (exclusively) through rice consumption. [...]
  Genetic engineering (GE) in agriculture is a controversial topic in science and society at large. While some oppose genetically modified crops as proxy of an agricultural system they consider unsustainable and inequitable, the question remains whether GE can benefit the poor within the existing system and what needs to be done to deliver these benefits? Golden Rice has been genetically engineered to produce provitamin A. The technology is still in the testing phase, but, once released, it is expected to address one consequence of poverty – vitamin A deficiency (VAD) – and its health implications. Current interventions to combat VAD rely mainly on pharmaceutical supplementation, which is costly in the long run and only partially successful. We develop a methodology for ex-ante evaluation, taking into account the whole sequence of effects between the cultivation of the crop and its ultimate health impacts. In doing so we build on a comprehensive, nationally representative data set of household food consumption in India. Using a refined disability-adjusted life year (DALY) framework and detailed health data, this study shows for India that under optimistic assumptions this country’s annual burden of VAD of 2.3 million DALYs lost can be reduced by 59.4% hence 1.4 million healthy life years could be saved each year if Golden Rice would be consumed widely. In a low impact scenario, where Golden Rice is consumed less frequently and produces less provitamin A, the burden of VAD could be reduced by 8.8%. However, in both scenarios the cost per DALY saved through Golden Rice (US$3.06-19.40) is lower than the cost of current supplementation efforts, and it outperforms international cost-effectiveness thresholds. Golden Rice should therefore be considered seriously as a complementary intervention to fight VAD in rice-eating populations in the medium term. (Genetic engineering, beta-carotene biofortification, vitamin A deficiency, Golden Rice, health benefits, DALYs, cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit analysis, India.) [More on Golden Rice...]
   
• Stein A.J., Sachdev H.P.S., Qaim M. (2006). "Can genetic engineering for the poor pay off? An ex-ante evaluation of Golden Rice in India." Research in Development Economics and Policy 5, University of Hohenheim:
  Genetic engineering (GE) in agriculture is a controversial topic in science and society at large. While some oppose genetically modified crops as proxy of an agricultural system they consider unsustainable and inequitable, the question remains whether GE can benefit the poor within the existing system and what needs to be done to deliver these benefits? Golden Rice has been genetically engineered to produce provitamin A. The technology is still in the testing phase, but, once released, it is expected to address one consequence of poverty – vitamin A deficiency (VAD) – and its health implications. Current interventions to combat VAD rely mainly on pharmaceutical supplementation, which is costly in the long run and only partially successful. We develop a methodology for ex-ante evaluation, taking into account the whole sequence of effects between the cultivation of the crop and its ultimate health impacts. In doing so we build on a comprehensive, nationally representative data set of household food consumption in India. Using a refined disability-adjusted life year (DALY) framework and detailed health data, this study shows for India that under optimistic assumptions this country’s annual burden of VAD of 2.3 million DALYs lost can be reduced by 59.4% hence 1.4 million healthy life years could be saved each year if Golden Rice would be consumed widely. In a low impact scenario, where Golden Rice is consumed less frequently and produces less provitamin A, the burden of VAD could be reduced by 8.8%. However, in both scenarios the cost per DALY saved through Golden Rice (US$ 3.06-19.40) is lower than the cost of current supplementation efforts, and it outperforms international cost-effectiveness thresholds. Golden Rice should therefore be considered seriously as a complementary intervention to fight VAD in rice-eating populations in the medium term. (Genetic engineering, beta-carotene biofortification, vitamin A deficiency, Golden Rice, health benefits, DALYs, cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit analysis, India.) [More on Golden Rice...]
   
• Stein A.J., Qaim M., Meenakshi J.V., Nestel P., Sachdev H.P.S., Bhutta Z.A. (2006). "Potential impacts of iron biofortification in India." Research in Development Economics and Policy 4, University of Hohenheim:
  Iron deficiency is a widespread nutritional problem in developing countries, causing impaired physical activity and cognitive development, as well as maternal mortality. Although food fortification and supplementation programmes have been effective in some countries, their overall success remains limited. Biofortification, that is, breeding crops for higher micronutrient content, is a relatively new approach. We propose a methodology for ex-ante impact assessment of iron biofortification, which builds on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and a large household data set. Our analysis of iron-rich rice and wheat in India indicates sizeable potential health benefits. The cost-effectiveness of iron biofortification compares favourably with other interventions. (Biofortification, plant breeding, iron deficiency anaemia, health benefits, DALYs, cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit analysis, India.)
   
• Stein A.J. (2006). "Zukunft der Pflanzenbiotechnologie: ethische Herausforderungen." (The future of plant biotechnology: ethical challenges). Panel discussion in the framework of the celebrations of the choice of the "Green Gate Gatersleben" as "Ort im Land der Ideen 2006", September 26, Gatersleben, Germany:
  Pflanzenbiotechnologie und Entwicklungsländer [PDF | 27KB].
   
• Stein A.J., Sachdev H.P.S., Qaim M. (2006). "Potential impacts of Golden Rice on public health in India." Contributed paper presented at the 26th Conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE), August 12-18, Broadbeach, Australia:
  Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) affects millions of people world-wide, causing serious health problems. Golden Rice (GR), which has been genetically engineered to produce beta-carotene, is being proposed as a remedy. While this new technology has aroused controversial debates, its nutritional impact and cost-effectiveness remain unclear. We determine the current burden of VAD in India from a public health perspective, and simulate the potential alleviating impact of GR using representative household food consumption data. Given broad public support, GR could more than halve the overall burden of VAD. Juxtaposing health benefits and overall costs suggests that GR is very costeffective. (Golden Rice, vitamin A deficiency, biofortification, genetic engineering, DALYs, cost-effectiveness analysis, India.)
  Potential impacts of Golden Rice [PDF | 54KB]. [More on Golden Rice...]
   
• Qaim M., Stein A.J., Meenakshi J.V. (2006). "Economics of biofortification." Plenary paper presented at the 26th Conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE), August 12-18, Broadbeach, Australia:
  Micronutrient malnutrition affects billions of people world-wide, causing serious health problems. Different micronutrient interventions are currently being used, but their overall coverage is relatively limited. Biofortification – that is, breeding staple food crops for higher micronutrient contents – has been proposed as a new agriculture-based approach. Yet, as biofortified crops are still under development, relatively little is known about their economic impacts and wider ramifications. In this article, the main factors that will influence their future success are discussed, and a methodology for economic impact assessment is presented, combining agricultural, nutrition, and health aspects. Ex ante studies from India and other developing countries suggest that biofortified crops can reduce the problem of micronutrient malnutrition in a cost-effective way, when they are targeted to specific situations. Projected social returns on research investments are high and competitive with productivity-enhancing agricultural technologies. These promising results notwithstanding, biofortification should be seen as a complement rather than a substitute for existing micronutrient interventions, since the magnitude and complexity of the problem necessitate a multiplicity of approaches. Further research is needed to corroborate these findings and to address certain issues still unresolved at this stage. (Micronutrient malnutrition, public health, biofortification, agricultural technology, impact analysis, developing countries.)
   
• Qaim M., Stein A.J. (2006). "Die Rolle der Agrarforschung bei der Bekämpfung von Hunger und Armut." (The role of agricultural R&D in the fight against hunger and poverty.)
  eins Entwicklungspolitik 15-16: 49-52. Manuscript for "Rolle der Agrarforschung":
  In der öffentlichen Debatte wird Agrartechnologie oftmals lediglich mit Steigerungen der Nahrungsproduktion in Verbindung gebracht. Da der Hunger von Vielen in erster Linie als Verteilungsproblem gesehen wird, wäre die Rolle von Agrartechnologie in der Hungerbekämpfung demnach sehr begrenzt. Diese Sichtweise greift jedoch zu kurz. Auch in Zukunft werden Produktionssteigerungen erforderlich sein. Darüber hinaus kann Agrarforschung dazu beitragen, Einkommen im Kleinbauernsektor zu steigern - also dort wo Hunger und Armut am größten sind.
   
• Stein A.J. (2006). Micronutrient malnutrition and the impact of modern plant breeding on public health in India: how cost-effective is biofortification? Göttingen: Cuvillier Verlag:
  Foreword: It is generally acknowledged that malnutrition imposes a heavy burden on society, with far reaching consequences for the well-being, health and productivity of the individuals at-risk. This is true for overweight and obesity in industrialised countries and, increasingly, in emerging economies, and it is true for undernutrition in low income countries. However, there is a particular form of undernutrition, known as micronutrient malnutrition, that largely goes unnoticed by the general public, by many decision makers and even by the affected individuals themselves, because its . often severe . health consequences are not attributed to poor nutrition. This is why this form of malnutrition is also called .hidden hunger.. For the same reason as micronutrient malnutrition, the search for potential remedies and their respective assessments have for a long time attracted relatively little attention among academics outside the more obvious fields of nutrition and public health. Yet, more recently a new, agriculturebased approach to help control micronutrient malnutrition has emerged: .biofortification. . breeding staple food crops for higher levels of essential minerals and vitamins. Information on biofortified crops and their potential impact and cost-effectiveness is scarce. As such, biofortified crops are not yet grown at a larger scale. Nonetheless, given the novelty of the approach, thorough, policy-relevant information is needed to evaluate this proposition relative to more common micronutrient interventions to be able to design strategies to address the problem of hidden hunger effectively and efficiently. This is the more indispensable if a crop is biofortified through genetic engineering, a technology that is often met with considerable . and emotional . resistance, irrespective of the purpose it is used for. In this analysis Alexander Stein puts micronutrient malnutrition and biofortification into a wider context and he develops a framework for ex ante evaluation of biofortification, both regarding its potential impact on public health and its cost-effectiveness. He applies this methodology to three case studies for India, of biofortified rice and wheat that are to address deficiencies in iron, zinc and vitamin A. As such, his study is the first detailed and comprehensive assessment of several biofortified staple crops within one consistent framework. Moreover, paying particular attention to the more contentious .Golden Rice., he seeks to clarify common misconceptions about this genetically modified crop, with an attempt to rationalise the ongoing debate. The results of this work indicate that biofortification may prove to be an effective and very efficient intervention to reduce the overall burden of micronutrient malnutrition, both for society and at the individual level. As biofortified crops follow the normal food chain, biofortification may also reach those consumers and subsistence farmers that are not regularly covered by other interventions. Therefore biofortification may become a valuable intervention to complement existing strategies. However, as Alexander Stein also points out, for biofortification to have the maximum impact, it will be necessary to achieve sufficiently high levels of minerals and vitamins in the crops, which consumers and farmers alike will have to accept and adopt at a larger scale. He therefore suggests that, for this to happen, current research and breeding efforts should continue and appropriate agricultural extension and social marketing strategies will have to be devised. The findings of this study provide a sound and important basis for decision makers in the fields of human nutrition, public health, agricultural policy and economic development; they also point other researchers to as of yet unresolved issues and open questions, thus hopefully furthering the academic debate and generally sparking broader interest in the important topic of agricultural technology, nutrition and public health. - Dr. Howarth Bouis, Director, HarvestPlus, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC
   
• Stein A.J. (2006). "Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of Golden Rice in India: an ex-ante study." Invited presentation at the Meeting of the Golden Rice Humanitarian Board, May 2, Freiburg i.Br., Germany:
  Cost-effectiveness of Golden Rice [PDF | 113KB]. [More on Golden Rice...]
   
• Stein A.J. (2006). "Grüne Gentechnik: Chance oder Risiko?" (Plant biotechnology: opportunity or threat?) Panel discussion in the framework of a one-day seminar of the Universities of Bremen and Kassel, January 13, Königswinter, Germany:
  Grüne Gentechnik [PDF | 117KB].
   
• Stein A.J. (2005). "Micronutrient malnutrition: impact on labour productivity and loss in GDP." Invited presentation at the "Conference on Eradicating Micronutrient Malnutrition for Better Health and Higher Economic Growth" of ILSI-India and the ILSI Human Nutrition Institute, October 28-29, New Delhi, India:
  Micronutrient malnutrition and economic growth [PDF | 118KB].
   
• Stein A.J., Meenakshi J.V., Qaim M. (2005). "Functional food for the poor: the potential impact of biofortification on public health in India" [PDF | 42KB]. Paper presented at the "Conference on International Agricultural Research for Development" (Tropentag), October 11-13, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany:
  Micronutrient malnutrition affects billions of lives. Combating this hidden hunger is mainly done through pharmaceutical supplementation and industrial fortification. More recently addressing this issue through agriculture was proposed, namely biofortification of staple crops, i.e. breeding food crops for higher levels of micronutrients. Yet, knowledge about the cost-effectiveness of biofortification is limited. This study analyses the expected costs and benefits of ironrich and zinc-rich cereals in India. To quantify the health benefits a disability-adjusted life year (DALY) framework has been deployed. Representative data on household food consumption has been used to derive individual nutrition statuses in the status quo and for two future scenarios in which biofortified cereals are consumed. Improvements in these statuses have been translated into reductions in related morbidity and mortality. It could be shown that iron-rich as well as zinc-rich rice and wheat have the potential to reduce the respective deficiency. The costs per DALY saved fall below the World Bank’s cost-effectiveness threshold; biofortification can considered to be effective and economical. (Biofortification, micronutrient malnutrition, plant breeding, staple crops, DALYs, health benefits, cost-effectiveness analysis, India.)
  Impact of biofortification [PDF | 43KB].
   
• Stein A.J. (2005). "Gentech-Nahrung: Viel Lärm um nichts?" (Biotech food: much ado about nothing?) Panel discussion for a radio programme of the West German Broadcasting Service (WDR5), October 8, Solingen, Germany.
   
• Stein A.J., Meenakshi J.V., Qaim M., Nestel P., Sachdev H.P.S., Bhutta Z.A. (2005). "Health benefits of biofortification: an ex-ante analysis of iron-rich rice and wheat in India." Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA), July 24-27, Providence, RI, USA:
  Hunger is acknowledged to impose a heavy burden on humankind with severe negative health consequences. Micronutrient malnutrition, or “hidden hunger”, is an even more widespread problem, to which economic development and income growth alone are not expected to provide a solution any time soon. Existing micronutrient interventions like pharmaceutical supplementation or industrial fortification have their limitations and can be complemented by a new approach: breeding food crops for higher micronutrient densities. Knowledge about the cost-effectiveness of this new tool, also termed biofortification, is scarce. In this study, a framework for economic impact analysis is developed, which is then used for evaluation of iron-rich rice and wheat in India. Health benefits are measured and quantified using “disability-adjusted life years” (DALYs). The impact of biofortification is based on a representative data set of food consumption at the household level. Juxtaposing imputed health benefits with research and development costs proves the cost-effectiveness of the intervention; under pessimistic assumptions saving one healthy life year through biofortification only costs US$ 1.90, a cost which even declines to 36 Cents under optimistic assumptions. Extending the study to include a cost-benefit analysis shows that iron biofortification, with an internal rate of return of 74-152%, can also be a worthwhile public investment. (Biofortification, micronutrients, plant breeding, health benefits, DALYs, iron deficiency, iron-rich rice, iron-rich wheat, cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit analysis, India.)
  Benefits of biofortification [PDF | 57KB].
   
• Stein A.J., Meenakshi J.V., Qaim M., Nestel P., Sachdev H.P.S., Bhutta Z.A. (2005). "Analyzing the health benefits of biofortified staple crops by means of the Disability-Adjusted Life Years approach: a handbook focusing on iron, zinc and vitamin A." HarvestPlus Technical Monograph 4, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali:
  Biofortified staple crops – food crops bred for higher micronutrient content – are expected to reduce micronutrient deficiency and its accompanying adverse health outcomes. Health benefits can be measured and expressed in terms of the number of “disability-adjusted life years” (DALYs) saved due to the intervention. This quantification of health benefits can be used in cost-effectiveness and in cost-benefit analyses, by attributing a monetary value to DALYs and juxtaposing this benefit and the research and development costs of the biofortified crop. This handbook describes how to conduct these impact analyses for staple crops biofortified with iron, zinc or beta-carotene. It outlines the underlying method, explains the individual steps of the analysis, and details information and data requirements. The results of analyses of the type described here should prove useful for demonstrating the economic feasibility of biofortification, estimating its impact, creating awareness of this new intervention, directing research priorities, and identifying constraints early on. (Biofortification, micronutrients, iron, zinc, beta-carotene, vitamin A, deficiency, staple crops, DALYs, health impact, cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit analysis.)
   
• Stein A.J. (2005). "Food for all: including GM food crops?" [PDF | 195KB]. Proceedings of a symposium on agricultural biotechnology, December 10, 2004. Deutsche Welthungerhilfe (German Agro Action), Bonn:
  The Deutsche Welthungerhilfe e.V. (German Agro Action) held a one-day symposium on December 10th, 2004 in Bonn to discuss the potential role of genetic engineering (GE) in providing “food for all”, in particular in the context of developing countries.1 The international symposium was attended by over 40 participants, including scientists, government officials, representatives of non-governmental organisations, industry representatives and reporters. In the morning the symposium focused on the potential of GM plants to improve the production and living conditions of small-scale farmers in developing countries and on the related risks and opportunities. In the introduction the requirements for a technology to be pro-poor and a typology of risks of biotechnology were outlined. [...]
   
• Stein A.J. (2004). "Ex-ante model for analysing health benefits of biofortification: the framework for beta-carotene." Presentation at the meeting "Vitamin A and the Common Agenda for Micronutrients" of the International Vitamin A Consultative Group (IVACG), evening session 1: nutrition sets the breeding agenda for biofortified foods, November 15-17, Lima, Peru:
  Framework for beta-carotene [PDF | 58KB].
   
• Stein A.J. (2004). "Health benefits of biofortification and the DALY framework for functional outcomes of iron and zinc deficiency." Invited presentation at a workshop on ex-ante impact assessment, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), October 19-21, Washington, DC, USA:
  DALY framework [PDF | 195KB].
   
• Sandwidi J.-P., Stein A.J. (2003). "Problems and prospects in utilising international water resources: the case of the Nile" [PDF | 387KB]. Term paper, November. Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung (ZEF, Centre for Development Research), Bonn, 31p:
  Fresh water is a scarce resource in many regions of this world. It is nevertheless vital for human existence and for economic development. The already limited supply of fresh water is going to be confronted with a growing demand for this resource in the future. As countries will also increasingly exploit international water resources, tensions and threats of violent conflicts rise. By example of the Nile Basin, the prospects and probabilities for peace are analysed by means of the “Kantian Triangle”: democracy, economic interdependence and shared membership in international organisations are the elements that increase the likelihood of peace. On most accounts Egypt, the Sudan and Ethiopia – the major players in the Nile Basin – perform rather poorly, but realist constraints on the likelihood of war as well as recent signs of the will to co-operate on the management of the Nile waters are more encouraging. (international water resources, conflict, Kantian peace, democracy, economic interdependence, international organisations, Nile Basin, Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia.)
   
• Stein A.J. (2003). "Determinants of micronutrient nutrition and the potential role of novel, food-based strategies in diminishing corresponding malnutrition: an economic analysis?" [PDF | 185KB]. Research proposal, September. Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung (ZEF, Centre for Development Research), Bonn, 24p:
  Our intention is to analyse the determinants of micronutrient malnutrition and subsequently to assess, from an economic point of view, the potential role of new seed technologies in decreasing this burden of mankind. To this end it is proposed to analyse the food consumption patterns across three countries in different affected regions of the world. This will be done with regard to three micronutrients, namely iron, zinc and vitamin A, which are the three target micronutrients in the "Biofortification Challenge Programme" of the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture and the International Food Policy Research Institute. To do so, in the second chapter the availability of these micronutrients in people's diets will be estimated for the population of corresponding surveys in the target countries by following standard econometric procedures. Subsequently two ex-ante cases studies will be conducted to establish the cost-effectiveness of food-based strategies that aim at diminishing micronutrient malnutrition. The objective is to clarify whether biofortification is an economically viable approach to improve, in the end, human health and well-being. To do so the studies have to overcome the ethical hurdle of assessing costs and benefits with regard to human life. In this context the approach of "disability adjusted life years" (DALYs) will be applied, thus following the methodology that was adopted by Zimmermann and Qaim (2002) for the first time in such a context.
   
• Stein A.J. (1998). "Political economy of economic policy reform and the case of Ecuador" [PDF | 288KB]. MA dissertation, September 18. Department of Economics, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, 71p:
  The objective of this dissertation was to analyze the process of economic policy reform – in the more specific context of adjustment and stabilization – for the case of Ecuador. For this a political economy framework was to be used, that is the common approach of economics to attribute a rather neutral (if not benevolent) position to political agents was replaced by their explicit inclusion in the analysis. With this approach the slow and conflictive reform process in Ecuador could be explained satisfactorily and the importance of the social and institutional background to economic policy reform became clear.
   
• Stein A.J. (1996). "Frankreichs Rolle in der Weltwirtschaftskrise" [PDF | 169KB]. Diplomarbeit im Fach Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, September 25. University of Münster, Münster, 49p:
  Die Weltwirtschaftskrise stellt ein komplexes Ereignis dar, innerhalb dessen es schwierig ist, die Rolle eines einzelnen Staates isoliert zu betrachten. So will ich mich darauf konzentrieren, die Unterschiede der Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaftskrise in Frankreich im Vergleich zu anderen Ländern kurz darzulegen und die weitreichendsten wirtschaftspolitischen Entscheidungen zu beleuchten. Der grundlegende Unterschied Frankreichs im Vergleich zu seinen Nachbarländern bestand in seiner relativen Autonomie und geringen Dynamik. Diese halfen zu Beginn zwar, den Einbruch der Krise hinauszuzögern - lange waren von der Krise nur die dem Weltmarkt zugewandten Sektoren betroffen; als aber die Krise dann auch in vollem Umfang auf Frankreich übergegriffen hatte, verhinderten eben diese Autonomie und Trägheit eine rasche Erholung. Hierbei spielte vor allem die zurückgegangene und verharrende Nachfrage eine bedeutende Rolle; ein Wiederaufschwung durch die Impulse eines Massenkonsums blieben aus. Auf der Angebotsseite war die Produktion, durch den heimischen Markt und Protektionismus geschützt, konkurrenzunfähig geworden. Was die politischen Entscheidungen betrifft, so hatte die unterbewertete Stabilisierung des Franc in der Anfangsphase der Weltwirtschaftskrise weitreichende Folgen. Zum einen half sie, durch die Erleichterung französischer Exporte und eine Steigerung des Vertrauens in den Franc, die große Krise aus Frankreich vorerst fernzuhalten, zum anderen führte sie dazu, daß ein umfangreicher Goldstrom nach Frankreich einsetzte. Durch dessen Neutralisierung zwang Frankreich die übrigen Staaten, im Angesicht der beginnenden Krise, restriktive Politiken zu ergreifen, und erschwerte ihnen die Bekämpfung der Krise. Mit dem Einsetzen der Krise in Frankreich und den Abwertungen anderer Länder kehrte sich die strikte Politik Frankreichs zu seinem Nachteil um. Mißtrauen in die Stabilität des Franc setzte ein, die Regierungen sahen sich wachsenden Finanzierungsproblemen gegenübergestellt, die Zinsen stiegen und infolgedessen wurden Investitionen nicht getätigt. Frankreichs Einfluß in der Weltwirtschaftskrise bestand also hauptsächlich in dem Ausüben eines Deflationsdruckes, der zuerst die Krise in den anderen Länder verschärfte und schließlich diejenige in Frankreich selber. Dieser Einfluß wurde jedoch von vielen weiteren Faktoren begleitet, wie etwa der ebenfalls stattfindenden amerikanischen Neutralisierung von Gold oder den mannigfaltigen internationalen Spannungen nach dem Ersten Weltkrieg. Zudem muß berücksichtigt werden, daß die damaligen Entscheidungsträger nicht über unser heutiges Wissen verfügten und im Nachhinein vieles eindeutiger und offensichtlicher erscheint. Abschließend kann jedoch gesagt werden, daß die Rolle Frankreichs zumindest eines von mehreren destabilisierenden und verschärfenden Elementen in der Weltwirtschaftskrise darstellte.